-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- Coming home from Asia , Barack Obama is obviously going through another rough patch in his presidency . But this time , it could be more dangerous : He is perilously close to becoming a lame duck 33 months before he leaves office . That is bad for him , bad for the country and bad for the world .

The second term of a presidency often follows an arc . As Lyndon Johnson told his aides after his landslide victory in 1964 , you 've got about a year to get things done at home . And second-term presidents have often seized on those early months for domestic accomplishments . After that , Washington becomes mired in midterm politicking , and in your third year , people start looking over your shoulder at who is coming next .

With power seeping away at home , second-termers increasingly turn their attention overseas , where they can still get big things done as commander in chief of the most powerful nation in history . That 's why presidents spend so much time on the road in their final years .

Obama 's second term is a total aberration . Resisted by obstructionists among Republicans and plagued by his own mistakes , the first 12 months after re-election were a bust . Why he and his team did n't take more care in the rollout of the Affordable Care Act website will remain one of the great mysteries for historians .

But it has now become equally puzzling why he has not become more sure-footed in foreign affairs . He is one of the brightest men ever to occupy the office , and yet his learning curve has been among the flattest . Talking to players on the world stage -- most of whom still want him to succeed -- one finds them genuinely rattled , worried about a lack of national will and operational competence .

On the tail end of his Asia trip , Obama told the press that in foreign policy , he thinks a president hits mostly singles and doubles and an occasional home run . It was odd enough that given his huge power and influence , he thinks small ball . But he also raised the question : Why so long between home runs ? When was the last one ? Three years ago with Osama bin Laden ?

Not to overdo his analogy , but the years since have brought a notable string of strikeouts . The administration would vigorously disagree , but just how much success can it genuinely claim in Syria , Egypt , Libya or even Iraq ? Or the Russian reset ? Or Ukraine ?

The administration 's increasing focus on Asia is a welcome move , but it too has gone less well than expected . Experts have long said that much of the success of the famous `` pivot '' will depend upon completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership , the most important trade agreement in decades . To its credit , the administration has aggressively pursued the deal but to little avail . The President 's trip to Tokyo revealed that the partnership is in serious trouble , mired down by domestic politics in both the U.S. and Japan .

Obama did provide much-needed assurances to Japan about American credibility as a military ally . Still , the facts remain that even as the U.S. cuts defense spending , China is boosting its defense budget by 12 % and flexing its muscles off its shores . With nationalism on the rise across Asia and sparks starting to fly , who can be certain that America will be there to put out a fire ?

The net result is of a president who sadly seems diminished both at home and abroad . He appears to have only minimal objectives with the current Congress -- passage of a higher minimum wage and pieces of an immigration bill -- and may not get either .

Most Americans still want him to succeed , but when television executives put him on the air , audiences often melt away . Even before the midterms , voters are looking over his shoulder at who comes next . `` Waiting for Hillary '' is a bigger story than `` What Happened to Obama ? '' And there are few prospects for home runs overseas .

This is bad news and not just for the President 's personal fortunes . America needs a strong , effective president year in , year out , to help propel us forward . Our success as a people has depended on our capacity to solve the problems of today so we can move on to tomorrow . The endless evasions and diversions are tying us in knots and draining our spirits .

The world needs strong , effective American leadership as well ; for all our mistakes like Iraq , the U.S. is the one nation that still has the power to keep world order . But in the twinkle of an eye , we have gone from being indispensable to indisposed .

There is no obvious game plan for Obama to bounce back . It would help if he and his team promised less and delivered more . It would help if more Republicans put the country first . The White House must also avoid the clear danger of so eagerly wanting a big breakthrough -- say , in negotiations with Iran -- that it weakens our security . No deal is always better than a bad deal .

But mostly , the Obama team probably has to be patient . Fresh opportunities for leadership will come ; they always do at the White House . And for all his troubles , the President retains enormous powers and public good will . It is in not in our national interest to have a lame duck for 33 months .

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David Gergen : Obama is experiencing another low point in his presidency

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He says there 's a risk Obama could be seen as a lame duck for next 33 months

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Gergen : A second-term president still can be a strong leader , particularly overseas

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He says Obama should n't diminish the potential impact of his decisions